🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.