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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."